Making a Morning Line

For daring horseplayers who want to make their own version of the morning line, when calculating odds, the final total of points of all horses in a given race should add up to a total between 122 and 126. How many points you assign each horse is mathematically based on the odds you think they will be, as listed below:

Odds Points Odds Points

1-5 70 7-2 22
2-5 65 4-1 20
3-5 60 9-2 18
4-5 55 5-1 17
1-1 50 6-1 14
6-5 45 8-1 11
7-5 41 10-1 9
8-5 38 12-1 8
9-5 35 15-1 6
2-1 33 20-1 5
5-2 28 30-1 3
3-1 25 50-1 2

Handicapping

Key Points to Remember
Your job is to identify, in advance, the two out of three races that are not won by the crowd favorite and to identify the two non-favorite horses most likely to beat the favorite.

Evaluating Horses
(Upgrade or Downgrade)
Based on Handicapping Factors:
• Suitability to distance
• Suitability to surface
• Current form
• Class level
• Speed
• Jockey and trainer

Based on the Pace Scenario:
•Will the horse’s running style be helped or hurt by the probable pace?
•Will early runners (E, EP) be able to hold on down the stretch?
•Will late runners (P, S) be able to catch the early horses in the stretch run?
•To avoid “4th-place-itis”: Will late runners be close enough at the 2nd call to be a factor in the race.

Based on Situational Factors:
+ Trouble last (not persistent)
+ Double Move last (“V” Pattern)
+ Ran well vs. today’s probable pace
+ Returning to a distance, surface or
class the horse will like
- Persistent trouble
- Returning to a distance, surface or
class the horse will not like
- Ran poorly vs. today’s probable pace
- Bad recent race(s) without an excuse
- Bad recent race(s) without a reason to
expect better today

Learn From Every Race
What worked?
What did not work?
What did you miss?
Reason(s) for a major surprise

Spotting Overlays

1. Lightly raced horses
2. Equipment changes
3. Second time out; improved works
4. Early speed and drop
5. Rider change

Race Pace Shapes

About 65% of races are won by horses that are not the top figure horse. The main reason for this phenomenon is that the top speed figure horse is not suited to the pace match-up of the race.

Horses are herd animals. Every horse has a distinct running style that corresponds to the position the horse wants to occupy in the herd. Here are the four basic running styles:

A Early Speed: Wants the lead
B Early Pressers: OK on the lead or within 2-3 lengths
C Stalkers: Want to be 4-7 lengths off the lead
D Closers: Run at the back of the pack

Race Pace Shapes

Fast Early : AAA three or more “A” horses
AA two “A” horses

Lone Early : one “A” and no “B” horse
one “B” and no “C” horses

Honest: one “A’, one or more “B” horses
two or more “B” horses

Slow: two or more “C” horses
one “C”
all “D”

Double Fig Horses

A superior wagering situation arises when a horse’s last two speed figures are both larger than everybody else’s last two. Such a horse - a double figure or, simply, "a double fig" - has a built-in safeguard against the possibility that a single big figure might have been a fluke. A triple fig is better yet.

Research shows that a double Beyer Figure advantage horses produce a win percentage around 50%, and horses with a triple Beyer Figure advantage are close to 70%.

may 28

BELMONT RACE 6
#9 Star of New York (6-1)
Exacta 9-4

HOLLYWOOD PARK RACE 8
#6 Camp Victory (4-1)
Exacta 6-4

Speed Handicapping on the Turf

1. Play only non-claiming turf races at the distance of one mile.
2. Eliminate any horse who does not show three wins at a mile or more in which it didn’t show a first or second at every call.
3. Eliminate any remaining horses who do not have at least two workouts in the past 16 days.
4. Eliminate those contenders who failed to win or finish second by more than ¾ lengths in most recent display of speed, or if that didn’t occur in either of the two most recent races.